11/05/2018

10:48

Preço do leite ao produtor subiu 7,7% em abril

Alta foi impulsionada pela terceira queda seguida mensal na captação da matéria-prima por parte dos laticínioscriacao_leite (Foto: Rogerio Cassimiro/Ed. Globo)

O levantamento do Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada (Cepea/Esalq/USP) mostra que a captação de leite no campo seguiu em queda pelo terceiro mês seguido e o preço recebido em abril registrou a terceira alta mensal consecutiva. A “Média Brasil” líquida (inclui BA, GO, MG, SP, PR, SC e RS) fechou a R$ 1,1574/litro, aumento de 7,72% (ou de 8 centavos/l) em relação ao mês anterior.

Segundo o Cepea, no mês passado foi registrada a maior média dos últimos oito meses em termos reais (deflação pelo IPCA de março/18), sendo 10,3% inferior à de abril de 2017 e próxima da observada em abril de 2016. No acumulado deste ano, a valorização do leite ao produtor chega a quase 15% na “Média Brasil”.

Todos os estados acompanhados pelo Cepea apresentaram alta nas cotações, com destaque para o Rio Grande do Sul (onde a elevação foi de 10,1%), Goiás (9,7%), Paraná (9%) e Minas Gerais (7,6%). “A considerável recuperação dos preços no campo neste mês esteve atrelada à maior competição entre empresas em função da redução da oferta de leite no campo”, dizem os analistas do Cepea.

cepea leite abril 2018 (Foto: Redação Globo Rural)

O Índice de Captação de Leite (ICAP-L) registrou a terceira queda consecutiva em março, recuando expressivos 7,2% frente a fevereiro na “Média Brasil”. Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná e Goiás apresentaram quedas acima da “média Brasil”, de 9%, 8,4% e 8,3%, respectivamente. Na sequência, ficaram Bahia, Santa Catarina, São Paulo e Minas Gerais, com 7%, 6,9%, 6% e 5,9%. Nos primeiros quatro meses do ano, o ICAP-L já caiu 10,1%.

Os analistas explicam que, ao contrário do observado em 2017, o primeiro trimestre de 2018 foi caracterizado pela oferta mais enxuta, impactada, principalmente, pela descapitalização de produtores. “Os baixos preços recebidos no ano passado desestimularam a atividade e reduziram os investimentos. Muitos produtores saíram da atividade e o abate de vacas aumentou. Para os próximos meses, os menores volumes de chuvas, as temperaturas mais amenas e a menor qualidade das pastagens devem se intensificar, diminuindo ainda mais a oferta no campo.”

Segundo o Cepea, a elevação do preço ao produtor também ocorreu como reflexo da valorização dos lácteos nos últimos meses. Segundo pesquisa diária do Cepea em parceria com a Organização das Cooperativas do Brasil (OCB), a média de abril (até o dia 27) do UHT negociado entre indústrias e atacado do estado de São Paulo foi 4,4% maior que a de março, chegando a R$ 2,40/litro.

De acordo com agentes de mercado consultados pelo Cepa, a demanda ainda está se recuperando, mas, em comparação com os últimos seis meses, está mais firme. “Vale ressaltar, contudo, que o movimento altista vem perdendo força no mercado do UHT desde a segunda quinzena de abril. Nesse período, as empresas relataram maior necessidade em realizar promoções para garantir liquidez, de modo que, em abril, houve queda de 1,8%.”

Os analistas observam que, “se por um lado a oferta no campo tende a se reduzir ainda mais nos próximos meses, por outro, o consumidor já mostra dificuldades de absorver novas valorizações dos derivados.” A maioria dos agentes consultados acredita em nova alta para o preço ao produtor nos próximos meses, ainda mais por conta do aumento do custo de produção atrelado à alta dos grãos. No entanto, a intensidade das variações vai depender da capacidade dos consumidores em absorver novas altas.

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